I sometimes give hints when I think someone's close to a breakthrough. But sometimes I make misdirecting comments...when I think someone's close to a breakthrough.
Well, I guess that's good news - either way, it means we're close to a breakthrough. Unless Ookla neglected to mention that he also gives hints and makes misdirecting comments when someone's way off on a wild tangent.
Only a great fool would reach for the herring he was given. We are not great fools, so we can clearly not accept the herring. But Ookla knew we were not great fools - he would have counted on it - so we can clearly not ignore the herring.
OK, we can quote that movie for the rest of this thread and I'll be happy. What makes it funny is that most of our theories and arguments do sound a lot like Vicini trying to win the battle of wits. Almost every argument we can make has a counter-argument, using the same evidence to prove the opposite point.
But it's my opinion that the counter-arguments to the earring's importance are pretty weak. That would be way too much of a red herring, even for EUOL, I think. The obsidian, on the other hand, probably is pretty much an insignificant detail. Who knows, though? It's fun to speculate.
As for Reen being still out there, here's the quote:
MB1, p. 610
"Sold you out?" Kar said. "He died promising us that you had starved to death years ago! He screamed it night and day beneath the hands of Ministry torturers."
I agree with Czanos that the Inquisitors wouldn't have much reason to lie. I believe that the annotation refers to something else we'll discover about Reen, perhaps connected with Ruin; I don't think it means he's still alive.