Cynewulf, you said you wouldn't be surprised if Western society's high divorce rate was linked to a rush to get married in order to have sex. My post was meant to offer counterevidence to that idea, and I think it did it well enough. So since you didn't offer any evidence in support of your idea, I think we can say that for now that there's no reason to regard it as at all likely. (Also, a nine percent win is a command performance in any national election.)
TMan, when the word "morality" is involved, it's not easy to ignore God. Without God, ethics take the place of morality. Cynewulf asked how it could be seen as immoral, so I gave a reason someone who believes in the concept of "morality" would see it as immoral. Other people have mentioned some reasons a person who doesn't believe in God might find it unethical or otherwise detrimental to society.
Also, you're implying that I'm using "valuing marriage less" as an example of immorality. That's right. I am. It's immorality, or at least amorality.
You're right that not everyone who has premarital sex lives together. However, if a goal is happiness throughout life via a happy marriage, here's a quote from Wikipedia:
Teachman’s study showed "women who are committed to one relationship, who have both premarital sex and cohabit only with the man they eventually marry, have no higher incidence of divorce than women who abstain from premarital sex and cohabitation. For women in this category, premarital sex and cohabitation with their eventual husband are just two more steps in developing a committed, long-term relationship." Teachman's findings report instead that "It is only women who have more than one intimate premarital relationship who have an elevated risk of marital disruption. This effect is strongest for women who have multiple premarital coresidental unions."
My response to this is: If they're only going to have sex with one person ever in their lives anyway, what benefit did they gain from having sex before marriage? If the theory is "try before you buy" but the best way statistically to have a successful marriage is to buy the first one you try, that kind of defeats the point Cynewulf is trying to make: that living together lets you discover incompatibilities before marriage; if all that these people discover during the trying-out phase is compatibilities or incompatibilities that can be overcome, that could be done just as well within marriage as during cohabitation, or during dating without a sexual component. Using just this evidence, the practical advantage is nil either way, so which one to choose depends only on whether you believe in the concept of sin.
But what percentage of people who have sex before marriage only have it with one person? That quote doesn't say, but I'm guessing it's not very high. This depends on the other person as well wanting to have sex with no one else after you, which you can't control. So if your options are
1. Don't have sex before marriage
2. Have sex before marriage only with one person and end up with a divorce probability equivalent to #1's
3. Have sex before marriage with multiple people and end up with a divorce probability greater than #1 or #2 (and this group outnumbers #2)
What practical advantage, then, is there to having sex before marriage? None (except for the obvious, which is the obtaining of sexual pleasure without the responsibilities of marriage). It may give an equivalent divorce probability, but it's
not going to decrease your divorce probability—and since you likely won't get lucky and stick with the first person you have sex with, the ultimate result is that it does increase your divorce probability. So you might as well not have sex before marriage, especially if you personally believe there are benefits to waiting, such as being in good standing with God.
Now, again, if you think divorce is A-OK and nothing to want to avoid, this line of reasoning will mean little to you. Same goes for if having immediate no-responsibility sexual pleasure is more important to you than having a lasting marriage. However, I believe strong families are the foundation of a strong society, and anything detrimental to our society is something to avoid.
(Note: I am
not saying that divorce should not be an available option when it's necessary. For example, if the relationship is abusive. Or if a husband just plain gives up on making the marriage work and leaves his wife to pursue his own interests, the wife should not be stuck married to him forever.)
However, I do think it best to spend your life with someone such that you won't have to overcome a lot of compatibility issues in the first place. I think we can all agree on that
Yes, we do all agree on that. We just disagree on whether premarital sex and cohabitation help avoid compatibility issues down the line. I do believe in trying on several different shoes before I buy a pair of shoes. I didn't marry the first person I dated either, but the dating did not include sex. There's no long-term advantage to sex being a part of dating.