Orrin

[Spriggan]

It was a USA today/CNN/Gallop poll SE.  Gallup has a breakdown by age group on their website at the bottem.

[Spriggan]

these are the 2 stories I was refrencing too about the dems

http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/11/18/elec04.prez.dems.gay.marriage.ap/index.html

http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/11/19/elec04.prez.dems.gay.marriage/index.html

[Mad Dr Jeffe]

70 percent is also a highly dubious number, and one that seems likely to be wrong. I must say Spriggan your right that it could.... with the empesis on could become an amendment to the US Constitution, but the legal basis for that amendment could be shaky, from both a states rights point of view and civil rights point of view. Groups that may be opposed to gay marriage in principle might very well oppose an amendment on grounds that a similar amendment might be written with them in mind (much easier with the first precident set) like mixed race marriages, I can see Al Sharpton and Arlan Spectre getting together on that one right now. And what about States? Do they no longer have the right to legislate their own affairs? Does there have to be a federal (constitutional law) saying who can marry and who cant. So while I agree that it could pass,... it will never pass.

[Spriggan]

well the thing is an admenment can't be shot down by the courts if it passes (not sure if it can be shot down before it goes to the states for radifacation).  So it dosn't matter when it comes to state's rights or anything else.  and look at http://www.gallup.com at the bottem. the polls there.

[Mad Dr Jeffe]

I belive there is a court that can say something about it, the supream court has the right of judical review even on amendments, and it does matter for states rights because the people electing the Congressmen and Senetors are voting members of their states. In the south particularly we sell our states rights dear, as do new englanders and liberal areas of the midwest. Since only 13 states can scuttle the ratification it really wont happen.

As for Gallup I dont tend to trust polls with such a low random sample, 1006 people does not a constitutional amendment make.

[Spriggan]

ya but when a state radafies an admendment it's giveing up it's right in that area.  That's why they must be ratafied in an election, not by congress.  Congress can only approve them to be sent to radafication.  Ya considering it would only take 13 states to kill it there's not a high likely hood (that's why I only give it a 50-50 shot).

As for polls, it's hard to get a 100% grip on what the people are thinking, but it's a decent indication.  As I posted ealier I'd like to see how those numbers will change since that specific one is about a month or so old.

I'm more intrested in this as an observer in poltics and socity.  I realy don't care which way it turns out.

[Fellfrosch]

I think 50% is still pretty high. I'll give this amendment a 5% chance, simply because so many different factors have to fall precisely into place in order for it to work.

[fuzzyoctopus]

I'll post another quote from John Stewart because I've added enough drama to this thread and need to add more levity.


"Gay marriage?! Come on, who's going to perform a gay marriage- a gay priest?  Where are you gonna find one of those?"

[House of Mustard]

A few egregious errors:

I belive there is a court that can say something about it, the supream court has the right of judical review even on amendments

Nope.  You're wrong, Jeffe.  The supreme court's job is to measure all laws against the constitution.  If something is in the constitution, it can't very well be unconstitutional.

That's why they must be ratafied in an election, not by congress.

Now you're wrong Sprig.  Amendments are not ratified by general election, but by state legislatures.

[The Holy Saint, Grand High Poobah, Master of Monkeys, Ehlers]

I can't find the poll itself, down at the bottom there is now a bit about Michael Jackson. However, from the newscast, what I can gather is that the question the poll asked was whether gay marriage should be legalized. Which AGAIN, i must point out, is FAR from indicating support for anything like an amendment, which is much more extreme than opposing a law that supports it. And again, 70% is still shy of the number needed to pass in states: 75%

Just an over view, this is how the amendment process works:
The amendment is proposed in the Congress, which then votes on it. IF 2/3 of the Congress (both houses I think) approves it, it goes out for state approval. IF 3/4 of the legislatures of those states, or a special approval body elected for exactly that purpose approves the amendment, then it is made point of the U.S Constitution, which is NOT subject to review or change by anything other than another amendment. ALthough it is subject to interpretation.

[Mad Dr Jeffe]

I stand corrected

[The Holy Saint, Grand High Poobah, Master of Monkeys, Ehlers]

none of those cases review the contents of an amendment, just how the amendment was ratified and then interpretation of it.

[Mad Dr Jeffe]

my issue with the gallup poll however is much easier to state...
Spriggan I dont know where you were grabbing the 70% number
The Breakdown I saw was something like Men over 49 20% for and 80% opposed Men 18-48 45%for  55%against Women 18-49 (the largest segment of the voting population) 52 for 48% against and women 49 + 40 for and 60 against.

Seems less than 70 % to me

[Spriggan]

Ya it's not on the site, I should have known they would have switched it.  I got the 70% from TV, on CNN when the Gallup guy comes on to discuss polls.  He said 70% then showed the breakdown by age group.  But again it was several weeks ago so a new one should be poping up soon which will probaly be more accurate.  If you take the adverage from the numbers Jeffe posted then you get 62%, so again I got the 70% from the man on TV.

And I allwayse thought admendments were radafied in a GE, but that's why we have Mustard....To prove me wrong.

[House of Mustard]

My pleasure, Sprig.

Now if only Jeffe was so easy to convince.