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Messages - Legion

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76
Everything Else / Re: Riddles
« on: September 08, 2005, 04:12:14 PM »
I have been thinking about the scenarios you gave Jade and if you really think about it there are 4 scenarios not 3

You Pick box 2 in all of the scenarios
scenario 1
1) You pick B
2) C is eliminated
3) A is correct
4) You lose

scenario 2
1) You pick B
2) A is eliminated
3) C is correct
4) You lose

scenario 3
1) You pick B
2) C is eliminated
3) A is incorrect
4) You win

scenario 4
1) You pick B
2) A is eliminated
3) C is incorrect
4) You win

4 scenarios and you lose half of them using the game show rules.  Still need to re-look at Ookla's link but just thought of that.

77
Rants and Stuff / Re: Yay to the employed!
« on: September 08, 2005, 03:01:50 PM »
Keep wishing that Lost One

78
Movies and TV / Re: article: Bye bye, and Bye Bond
« on: September 08, 2005, 12:22:24 PM »
plues I always find movies like flash Gordon funnier now just because of how old and cheesey it is now

79
Everything Else / Re: Riddles
« on: September 08, 2005, 09:56:54 AM »
I would agree with you completely if you where not given the choose to switch after the first box was removed.  But since 1 of the 3 boxes are taken away and you are given the choice to either switch to the other box or stay with your current box then it completely negates one of the situations.

OK Facts:
1) You pick 1 of three boxes
2) No matter which box is correct and which box you pick, a wrong boxes that is not yours will be eliminated.
3) The host will ALWAYS give you the chance to switch

This means that your first guess has no impact on whether you will win or lose, it is just like getting a buy round in a tournement.  So the only real choice you have in this situation is whether you stay with box 2 or switch to box 1....which is a 50% that yours is right. Now if the host never gave you that chance to switch then you would be right you would only have a 1 out of 3 chance of winning.

I will look at Ookla's link again, but I cannot till tonight.

80
Everything Else / Re: Riddles
« on: September 07, 2005, 05:48:27 PM »
OK but since the host will always eliminate one of the 3 that is not yours and is wrong then possibility 2 and 3 should not count as 2 different situations since it makes no difference if which one is eliminated, since it will not be yours or the correct box.  

Think about it no matter which box you choose and not matter which box is correct your choice is always coming down to picking between one of two boxes not one of three boxes.

81
Everything Else / Re: Riddles
« on: September 07, 2005, 04:01:26 PM »
I agree with both of those statements.....but it is really 1/3 not 33%
1/3+1/3+1/3=1
33%+33%+33%=99%

1/3 does not equal 33%, but for this we will assume that 1/3 does =33%

but yes I know what you are saying and I agree that you, at the begining only have a 33% chance of being right, and yes there are only 3 possible scenarios

82
Everything Else / Re: Riddles
« on: September 07, 2005, 02:51:38 PM »
Quote
And no offense, Legion, but she obviously didn't think about my post long enough (did she actually read this thread, or did she just hear your explanation of my post?), or she's not as statistically inclined as you make out.  If you're having trouble grasping how it works this way, I recommend you click on Ookla's link and think it out.



She did read your post and that is where she stated that your logic is wrong.  She said that after the host eliminates one of the wrong boxes that is not yours, it is, statistically no better if you switch boxes.  This is due to the fact that the host will always revealed the wrong door no matter if you pick a correct one or not.  Therefore it comes down to you picking one box with a 100% chance of not having your box eliminated...then you are given a chance to switch between 2 boxes which gives you a 50/50 chance of picking the right box.

So having 3 boxes is really not important since you will always have a different box (that is wrong) eliminated first.  So then you only have to really choose between the two boxes that are left.  Now this is just like calling a coin heads or tails in the air.  Statically you have a 50% chance of being right no matter what way you go.

83
Movies and TV / Re: article: Bye bye, and Bye Bond
« on: September 07, 2005, 11:42:25 AM »
Yeah he plays Max....something or other in it right

84
Everything Else / Re: Cool Stuff found on the Internet V
« on: September 07, 2005, 10:26:16 AM »
Tactician      83%

Butt-Kicker      75%

Power Gamer      75%

Specialist      75%

Method Actor      67%

Storyteller      58%

Casual Gamer      42%

85
Everything Else / Re: Riddles
« on: September 07, 2005, 10:21:42 AM »
yeah I was talking to a Math major about your statistics to see if you were right about all that and she told me that your logic wasn't right and that in fact it wouldn't matter if you switch or not...This girl was the Valedictorian of her college so I am assuming that she knows what she is talking about

86
Movies and TV / Re: article: Bye bye, and Bye Bond
« on: September 06, 2005, 05:03:58 PM »
well then by all means Preach on brother Preach on.

87
Movies and TV / Re: article: Bye bye, and Bye Bond
« on: September 06, 2005, 03:43:13 PM »
I could not see Christopher Walken as the next Bond.  I do love him in just about every movie he has been in, but he is not the Bond type.  Walken never strikes me as a fast moving action stare that the Bond is.  I think his talents would be much better suited to being an evil villain in one of the Bond movies...that would be great, but he could not play Bond.

88
Everything Else / Re: Riddles
« on: September 06, 2005, 03:37:45 PM »
WOW I read your reply Jade and it is filled with misleading facts....

OK you have 3 boxes
[1] [2] [3]

You pick box 2.....of course the host is going to eliminate a wrong answer first..... So box 3 is eliminated

[1] {2}

Now you only have box 1 and 2 left.....You had a 33% chance of winning in the beginning....now since one of them is eliminated that was wrong, your chances increase to 50% no matter if you switch or not.  So is it in your best interest to switch...no because regardless of which box is removed you still have the same chances of winning at this point,  because the host is NEVER going to look at yours or (if its different) the correct box first, they will always eliminate one of the wrong ones.  You have at this point that same amount of likelihood of being right on your first guess then if you change.  Remember you are, after eliminating 1 box still just picking from 2 boxes that both have an equal chance of having the prize in it.

89
Video Games / Re: RTS on the Cheap
« on: September 06, 2005, 10:27:14 AM »
Final Fantasy Tactics and Orge Battles are the best turnbased games.

EDIT: you can not discuss doing illegal things on the bored thanks JP

EDIT (2):Just so you know Emulators are not illegal.  Even using them to play old games is not illegal, you can do it IF you meet certain criteria.  1) you own the game, or 2) you only use it for a 24 hour time spand......but I will not talk about them again

90
Everything Else / Re: Riddles
« on: September 06, 2005, 10:24:49 AM »
Quote
Yes, but think about it.  I know where the Jack of diamonds is.  You don't.  You pick 1 in 52 cards.  That card has a 1 in 52 chance.  I, knowing where the card is, remove the other 50 cards and leave one card left.  You can't say that the original card has the same chance of being the Jack of Diamonds as the 1 card that is left over...  

Here is an article describing how it works.  

http://www.straightdope.com/classics/a3_189.html



But you might know where it is, and by the time you ask us to switch we have a 50% chance of being right....So it may be the card you have not flipped over, but it could (equally) be the card that we have picked.  Each has as likely chance of being true.  So if we switch or stay with our original card we still have the same chance of being right.  Hence it is not nessasary "in your best intrest" to switch

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