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Messages - Firemeboy

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331
Everything Else / Re: Riddles
« on: September 06, 2005, 01:34:41 AM »
Quote
What you say is ONLY true of the initial choice.
 

It's all one choice.  You either stick with what you have, or go with the other 2 (9, 51, etc).  You are right, it's either one or the other, but by revealing what is behind the other door (cards), you haven't eliminated them from the equation.  They are still a part of it.

332
Everything Else / Re: Riddles
« on: September 04, 2005, 10:20:05 PM »
I knew I was me who was wrong all along.  Although I thought that is what I was waying with the cards...

Anyway, I don't know who got that one.  Who wants to throw another riddle out?

333
Everything Else / Re: Riddles
« on: September 04, 2005, 05:42:22 PM »
Yes, that is the way probability works.  As long as the person knows which card is the Jack, only takes out cards that are not the jack, then it is just as I stated.  

Are you telling me that if you pick a card at random, and then I take out the other 50 cards, then 50 percent of the time the original card you pulled out will be the Jack of diamonds?

Only 2 percent of the time will your card be the Jack of Diamonds, and 98 perecent of the time the card left over will be.  It is not 50/50, as long as the 'host' knows where the card is, and removes the cards that are not the right one.

Check out the article, it's all explained in there.

334
Everything Else / Re: Riddles
« on: September 04, 2005, 02:40:07 PM »
Here is another way to look at it.  If you picked a card, then I took away 50 cards, we are left with two cards, one of them is the Jack of Diamonds.  If I took back both cards, mixed them up, they you are correct, there is a 50/50 chance that one of them is the Jack of Diamonds.  

But that is only if I mixed them up.  When you picked your card you had a 1 in 52 chance, or a slightly less that 2 percent.  By taking away all of the other cards except for the Jack of Diamonds, this remaining card actually has a  .98 percent chance of being the Jack.  

In other words, if we played this 'game' 100 times.  On average you would pick the Jack of diamonds twice.  The other 98 times it would serve you right to switch to the card that I picked, assuming that I always eliminate the cards that are not the Jack of diamonds.

335
Everything Else / Re: Riddles
« on: September 04, 2005, 02:31:05 PM »
Yes, but think about it.  I know where the Jack of diamonds is.  You don't.  You pick 1 in 52 cards.  That card has a 1 in 52 chance.  I, knowing where the card is, remove the other 50 cards and leave one card left.  You can't say that the original card has the same chance of being the Jack of Diamonds as the 1 card that is left over...  

Here is an article describing how it works.  

http://www.straightdope.com/classics/a3_189.html

336
Everything Else / Re: Riddles
« on: September 04, 2005, 01:42:13 PM »
Quote
The original probability was for 1 of 3, or 1 of 10, not 1 of 2, which is a different equation.  Whenever something changes (ratio), so does the probability.


No, think about it.   When you first picked that 1 in 10, it had a one in ten chance.  The fact that the rest are eliminated doesn't mean anything.   What if I held up a deck of cards and asked you to pick the jack of diamonds.  You picked one card (1 in 52 chance that you got it right, since you don't know where the jack is), then I (knowing where the jack is) turned over 50 cards, all of which are NOT the jack of diamonds.  There are now two cards left. When you picked the first card, you had a 1 in 52 chance that it was the jack of diamonds.  This last card now has a 1 in 2 chance.  You would be a fool not to switch cards.


337
Everything Else / Re: Riddles
« on: September 02, 2005, 08:14:50 PM »
Look at it a different way.  Let's say there are 10 doors, and you pick one.  You had a 1 in 10 chance that the door you first picked is right.  Now the hose opens 8 doors, revealing 8 boxes of bananas, and two closed doors (the one you picked, and the last door).

Which door should you pick then?  Sure, both doors now have a 1 in 2 chance of being right, but your originaly pick had a 1 in 10, while the other door has a true 1 in 2 chance.

You would be a fool not to switch to the other door, just as in this puzzle you have a better chance if you switch to the other door.

338
Everything Else / Re: Riddles
« on: September 02, 2005, 05:27:57 PM »
Skar, you are correct.  

339
Everything Else / Re: Riddles
« on: September 02, 2005, 01:42:48 PM »
That is a good guess, but incorrect...  

340
Everything Else / Re: Riddles
« on: September 02, 2005, 01:11:32 PM »
You are on a game show and are in the final round.  The host shows you three doors and tells you that behind two of the doors are boxes filled with bananas.  Behind the other door is a box filled with $10,000.  

You are told to pick on of the doors and decide to pick door #2.  After you pick your door, the host, as he always does, picks another door and opens it up.  In this case, he opens door number 3.  You see behind it a box filled with bananas.  You haven't seen what is behind door # one, nor do you know what is behind door #2.

The host asks you, "Would you like to switch doors?"

So, the question is, is it in your best interest to switch?  If so, why?  If not, why not

341
Everything Else / Re: Riddles
« on: September 01, 2005, 12:55:02 PM »
What e said...

342
Everything Else / Re: Riddles
« on: August 31, 2005, 11:09:21 PM »
You got it, except you can do it with one cut.  Cut the third link in.  That leaves you with two links on one side, the link you cut, and the four links on the right side.

Then you do exactly as you say.

Well done.

343
Everything Else / Re: Riddles
« on: August 31, 2005, 01:44:57 PM »
Quote
the idea is to give him one link at a time, not two at a time.


Sorry, never got around to posting my hint.  You are correct in the above statement, but it could be worded a different way.  The idea is for the hotel manager to have one link the first night, two links the second night, three links the third night, etc. etc. etc.  

344
Everything Else / Re: Riddles
« on: August 30, 2005, 04:13:35 PM »
If nobody else has a guess by end of day, I'll give a hint, and then if nobody has solved it by tomorrow, then I'll give the answer.  

And Jade, feel free to post yours, we can be working on more than just one puzzle at a time...

Maybe we could even lobby for a puzzle section?  With each puzzle in it's own thread?

345
Everything Else / Re: Riddles
« on: August 30, 2005, 02:32:02 PM »
It is not wrong.  It is just not right enough...  :)  You can do it with fewer cuts.

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