Why Anglos Lead

[Mad Dr Jeffe]

Depending on who you ask... China has already crushed Japan economically. China, Japan and the United States are the three most productive economies on Earth, but China is the fastest-growing (at an average rate of 9.5% per annum for more than two decades), whereas both the US and Japan are saddled with huge and mounting debts and, in the case of Japan, stagnant growth rates. China is today the world's sixth-largest economy (the US and Japan being first and second) and America's third-largest trading partner after Canada and Mexico. According to Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) statisticians in their Factbook 2003, China is actually already the second-largest economy on Earth measured on a purchasing-power-parity basis - that is, in terms of what China actually produces rather than prices and exchange rates. The CIA calculates the United States' gross domestic product (GDP) - the total value of all goods and services produced within a country - for 2003 as US$10.4 trillion and China's as $5.7 trillion. This gives China's 1.3 billion people a per capita GDP of $4,385.

[42]

Nessa: What the frell does religion have to do with world superpower status?

According to many sociologist/anthropologist, religion is an amazing stabilizing force in societies. Probably because it weeds out a of diversity that would tear apart the society. It's a good thing and a bad things depending on how you look at it.

[The Holy Saint, Grand High Poobah, Master of Monkeys, Ehlers]

so what your numbers there say, Jeffe, is that even though China has ~4 times as many people, the US still has nearly twice the GDP. WHich, it seems to me, means that the US is still doing much better, even if China is growing rapidly.

I don't think you can say that China is ahead of the US in terms of economic or political influence at the moment. Not without ignoring some reality. Like the Lost one said, it may pass, but it hasn't yet.

[Mad Dr Jeffe]

Never said it has passed the US in either. It may have eclipsed Japan though depending on whom you talk to. The general consenus is that it will pass most western nations soon and unless the US changes its policies its likely to get steamrolled. Which also doesnt mean that it will. Still 9.4 percent growth and the largest market economy in the world is nothing to ignore and neither is its massive military which has the largest Army in the world. You cant forget the threat of China was enough to stalemate the Korean War in the 50's (and that was a China weakend by a decade of war against both Japan and itself.

[Entsuropi]

China's military is not as bad as it sounds. It's huge, yeah, but so was Iraq's army in the first gulf war. They have only limited offensive capabilites at present - one thing people learned from the Taiwanese straights crisis in the 80's was that china didn't really have the capability, at that time, to invade Taiwan. America and Britain have excellent ability to take the fight abroad (thanks to our networks of military bases all over the place, our large navies and airforces, i'd hazard) but China doesn't have that yet.

[Nessa]

Ok.

Living in Salt Lake City I don't get many differing viewpoints. I had to find some way to suck other opinions into the conversation.

China needs to stabilize their government and provide more freedoms to their people before they are capable of becoming a dominant power. They are well on their way.

Is it possible for the rise of China to become Cold War-ish with the US? Or will we willlingly cede our role as an economonic superpower---and hence our leadership in the world? If it comes to that.

[Entsuropi]

I've heard that china is having frequent riots and social disturbance caused by the rural population becoming much poorer than the urban population. Don't know how reliable the sources were, and it's kind of hard to gauge social issues in a country with 2 billion people, a huge landarea and a much lower press profile.

[The Lost One]

I've heard the same thing about China having riots and social disturbences cause by the poorer rural population. My understanding is that China's rapid growth has not been very equally distributed throughout the country. So pockets in China might be doing well but a good portion of the country is still way behind.

It should also be noted that rapid economic growth is not the same as economic and political power. China's rapid growth is in part attributed to how poor it use to be and it vaste population. Growth rates are always really high when a country is going from nothing to something, but whether China can maintain that growth in the long run to become an economic super power has yet to occur. China still needs more time to develope and if they don't keep their population stable it won't happen.

Part of Japan's (and Europe's) problem is people stopped having kids and everyone got old, which is having major economic reprecussions.

[Skar]

As China emerged from communism and began practicing despotic capitalism, economic clout and benefit fell into the hands of government officials and military officers.    That's the way it is today.  There are lots of little fish getting spectacularly wealthy in China  but it's only as lampreys on the big fish, the military officers and the government officials.  I think before China becomes a leading economic superpower they're going to have to live through the massive bloody rebellion, civil war and general chaos that will come when the 2 billion "regular" people decide that living under the heel of despots is not something they'll stand for.

Another reason I think Anglos lead is, simply, the lack of a bribery culture.  Most people who talk about "corruption" have never seen the real, pervasive thing.  I'm sure high government officials in our country take bribes.  But try giving one to a cop in any given American city.  Now try giving one to a cop anywhere in the third world or the middle east.  The difference is telling I think.

[Fellfrosch]

I can't comment on bribery in Asia, but I'll readily agree that it's a limiting factor in Mexico. I never had to deal with it personally, but you could tell it was all over the place--far more than in the US or Europe (at least in my experience).

[The Jade Knight]

Interesting thought:  There are significantly more Christians in China than there are in Canada.

Why the nations which have done well have done well is a very complicated subject.  As a History student, I've learned never to think anything's easy to explain.  The influence of the Catholic Church, however, was instrumental in shaping Europe as it was.  The influence of Protestantism (and especially Puritanism) was instrumental in shaping American outlooks.


Coming from the mouth of some of the Chinese people I know, separation of wealth in China is increasing.  According to Wikipedia, the top 10% consume over 30% of the resources, and the bottom 10% consume less than 2.5%.  Looking at a chart showing China's Gini coefficient over time shows that this is true (China has one of the fastest rising Gini coefficients in the world, from the looks of it).

Furthermore, lack of marriage prospects is another cause of rioting in China - there are enough more men than women that homosexuality is on the rise and it's causing social unrest.

It's a sociological fact that when men are unable to get married, gang involvement and social unrest increases.

[The Holy Saint, Grand High Poobah, Master of Monkeys, Ehlers]

How does that number translate to proportions of the population? Canada could be 100% Christian, and China could *still* have more Christians than Canada, and still Christianity would be a minority.

[42]

e has a point.

To help the argument, my stats Professor pointed me to this site: http://www.nationmaster.com/