I agree with pretty much everything said here. Moiraine wasn't the first, however she was a arguably the most important to Rand on a relationship level. And it did indeed start before the women. With all that has been said, the next step is to see what the books say. It started at his birth. As stated in the prophecies:
“At the end of time, when the many become one, the last storm shall gather its angry winds
to destroy a land already dying. And at its center, the blind man shall stand upon his own grave.
There he shall see again, and weep for what has been wrought.”
-The Essanik Cycle
It is stated that it will happen on Dragonmount, with no refference to the women. You may argue back and forth on whether the prophecies are what will happen/what needs to happen/what could happen but whatever the case, this is what they say.