You also have to take into account how the Rays have been winning against other teams. Not only do they sit idly for 9 innings against the BoSox, but they also tend to do it with teams that aren't as good. So you do have me there. Though, don't forget that last loss. 10-3. So yeah, the Rays won 4 out of 6, both games they lost they lost early on and the games that were even remotely close into the 8-9th innings were won. So I agree with you on that, this series will be a great one to watch with no clear winner until the games have been played.
That being said. Tampa will have home advantage and that does play into it. Boston has shown all year that they're not that good in the Trop, besides the one blowout and the very close game earlier in the year (I think... it could be that the BoSox blowout earlier this week is their only win all year in the Trop.)
That is if Tampa wins a game here against the Twins. Oh, and BJ Upton will be back. He's a pretty big factor when it comes to the Rays. How it's looking right now, the Rays will be near 100% when it comes to October, and that just means they're going to be getting better.
On another note, somewhat related, I hope LAA loses in the first round. Horribly. Like, they get completely shut out for 3 games, with the other team blowing them out of the water.
If my stats are wrong, I blame my bad tasting coffee and that I've only just woken up.