First, I personally think the pairs could've been done a little better (to make it more equal with the battles. Give some of the characters a bit more of a chance, because seriously--Denth vs Marsh? Is there ANY question about the result of that? Everyone has put Marsh winning that with NO contest). I would do it more like this:
Round 1: Spook vs Vivenna (with about 3 years to learn Awakening a little more)
Round 2: Sazed vs Dilaf
Round 3: Vasher vs Marsh
Round 4: Vin vs Raoden (with 3-4 years of practice)
Round 5: Denth vs Kelsier
Round 6: The Lord Ruler vs Susebron
And the rest the same....I think this makes from here to the end a little more even too, so the new challenger doesn't all of a sudden have an easy battle. The easiest one would be Sazed/Dilaf vs Spook/Viv.
Even then, I still think Raoden would win. But that's just me.
As for Plas's comment about time. I don't think that really applies to Raoden. He's been practicing Aons practically his whole life, and now that he's in Elantris, he's practicing them even more. When someone practices THAT much drawing, they can get FAST. Amazingly fast. And that's pretty much the impression I got with Raoden. He can whip out those Aons.
Give him more time, and he'll get faster. And better. Less mistakes. More modifications.
And also, let me add that when I initially saw this showdown, I thought Vin would take the prize. I had no doubt, because the first fight I gave easily to Vin (that's what happens when you take a near-end-of-HoA Vin and put her agaisnt an end-of-Elantris Raoden, who hasn't been using the Aons with power behind them for even a week by the end of the book). All the fights after that are practially gimme's to Vin. Kelsier? Easy beat. Rashek? We saw the end of that. And Marsh? She'd take him down...
And then I looked back at the first fight and realized how unfair I was being to Raoden. It's only right to give him more time to practice and get better if I'm going to take Vin when she's had 3-4 years of practice. If I want to do them on equal footing as they are in the books, though....Let's take Vin just before the first Venture ball in FE. I think that would be a bit more fair. Maybe. Still, Vin would've had more time to practice though...
Anyway, those are just my thoughts....I've probably said too much. Oh well....
Oh, and Plas, I'm actually a 'she'...Not that it really matters, but, yeah.