I think reading between the lines, there is absolutely no doubt that the first half of Memory of Light will be published first and this year.
Brandon has gone on record stating that the final completed volume will probably check in at around 700,000 words or so. That will place it at 175% on the progress bar.
Obviously, it is impossible to publish a 700,000 word book on many levels. A split is going to be mandatory no matter what.
At this point, the BEST thing to do is to probably continue writing, revising, working, polishing until the WHOLE books is finished and then it can be released either as a 2 volume book or published at 6 month intervals . . . whatever Tor and Harriet decides is best both to honor Jordan's wishes and legacy and also what makes financial sense in what is one of the worst recessions in our lifetimes.
This way, if Brandon or Harriet feels the need to either revise or rewrite earlier parts of aMoL, they can do so easily.
Unfortunately, I'm now sure this will NOT be done.
Right now, Brandon is quite obviously spending ALL his time working on edits for the first 400,000 or so words of aMoL and has in fact confirmed that is what Harriet wants him to do. All of this work should be done by April. Why the hurry? And why the focus now on those edits? The obvious conclusion is that a decision has been made to get the first half of the book ready to go and release this year. If the line edits are done and the manuscript sent off to the publisher, we can conceivably see volume one of A Memory of Light in bookshelves by September of 2009. It can CONCEIVABLY to be done to push manuscript into publication in THREE months but this usually turns out poorly with multiple grammar and spelling errors as well as name switches and errors as well. This had been done before with Lord of Chaos and a few subsequent Wheel of Time books with poor results. In fact, the decision was made with the last few to "slow it down" and take the full 6 months for better proofing with noticeably better quality.
From April/May on, Brandon can then work on the last 250,000 to 300,000 words of aMoL and probably have the manuscript ready by December 2009 or January 2010 with publication in summer of 2010.
This makes sense on MULTIPLE levels. The economy is bad and book publishers have been hit as hard if not harder than any other business in America right now. Publishing a GARGANTUAN book in two volumes with the necessary slipcases would cost a great deal. It would also be intimidating and unwieldy. Despite Jordan's proclamations of Tor needing to invent "new binding" common sense has to somehow prevail here.
In addition, it makes sense to introduce Robert Jordan and keep him in the limelight and in the hearts and minds of the fans. You don't want to pull a George RR Martin and make people wait 5 years between books. The readers are fickle and may move on.
This is the concluding volume of what is the greatest epic fantasy of our generation and one that will not be matched in length and scope for many decades . . . perhaps generations. A release in 2009 would generate an instant New York Times #1 bestseller which would benefit Tor tremendously. Momentum could then be built up for Volume 2 which should be another #1. There would be about 6-8 months between Volumes which is perfect.
Jordan-Con is April 17th to 19th. Tom Doherty of Tor books will be in attendance and I think this event would be a natural and obvious time to announce the completion of the first half of the manuscript with a publication date. Would be great either as an opening or closing announcement to really make the Con special.
No concrete evidence and I have NO insider information but I think reading between the lines and applying a little logic and reasoning shows this to be the most likely course of action.
I don't really agree with it because even though I appreciate the reasons for doing it, I think it really takes a lot of creative flexibility away from Harriet and Brandon. But it could very well be that Tor REALLY needs a #1 this year in today's economy and there could be some other big deals (like movie and T.V. options) that hang in the balance and would undoubtedly be helped by a big splash. A Memory of Light is literally a once in a lifetime lottery ticket for the publishers and they want to make the most of it. Also, the story of A Memory of Light could already to so well planned and locked in that complete rewrites and edits are extremely unlikely. It looks like Jordan had essentially planned the entire novel, chapter by chapter, viewpoint by viewpoint in a very precise order and Brandon is merely filling in the blanks, rewriting some parts, and integrating everthing into a whole. If that's the case, it may very well be feasible to release the first half of the book with no serious repercussions on the second half.
For better or worse, I think we're going to get part of A Memory of Light in 2009 . . .
Thoughts?
Dennis