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Alloy of Law - Vanishers Theory

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jacobfake:
[Spoooilers? Idk what qualifies from preview chapters but if you haven't finished them stop here. Also, read them now because their amazing.]

I looked back a couple of pages and didn't see any topics specifically related to theories about the Vanishers so I was hoping to hear you guys' theories. Failing that, I'll start it off with mine and you can at least poke the holes in it.

The mysteries as I understand it are:

1. Who is the leader/ where did he come from/ who does he work for?
2. How do they steal the train cars?
3. What are they taking the hostages for/ why do they only want noble women?
4. Why do they want the money/ how does it figure into their endgame? (Wax notes them checking mouths etc. in chapter 5)
5. What is their endgame?

My hypothesis:

2. (This is the only real hypothesis): So basically aluminum mistings can't actually do anything, and bendalloy mistings can't produce large enough bubbles to steal entire train cars, but I'd say you use hemalurgy to stick aluminum-burning into a bendalloy misting and boom problem solved, except maybe you use a couple of them in conjunction.
    -Also, 1. hemalurgy would be more likely preserved in Koloss culture since it was much more out in the open, so the leader's Koloss blood could be connected to him knowing about it.
     -And, 3. aluminum gnats fit the bill because they would be born into noble families (due to the misting concentration) but at the same time not have any Allomantic powers to speak of (aluminum does nothing on it's own). Idk why the hostages are all women though.

douglas:
First, I think you mean duralumin rather than aluminum.  Aluminum has no positive effect beyond making it easier to avoid metal poisoning - it gets rid of your metals to no effect.  Duralumin is the one that gives a super-flare.

Second, your hypothesis has a major problem: Neither hemalurgy nor mistborn are required to achieve a bendalloy super-flare.  A nicrosil misting can give other people super-flares, so you'd just need a team of one bendalloy misting and one nicrosil misting.  Much easier than finding duralumin mistings (who probably never mention or use their useless ability) or using hemalurgy, and especially much easier than doing both.

CabbyHat:
I'm not sure about their strategy, but I remember that when I first read that they were kidnapping women with strong Allomantic bloodlines, my initial thought was that they were trying to use them to breed more Mistings. That's a bit of a gruesome thought, though, and I'm not sure if it's the kind of thing Brandon would want to use as a major plot point.

ulysses sword:
I don't believe that Nicrosil is generally known yet, so Duralumin spikes could be the motivation.  I doubt it though, as  there is no way to detect a Duralumin Misting.

jacobfake:
oops Duralumin my bad haha. anyways...

Yeah I don't think Nicrosil is popularly known because Wax specifically describes the editorial reaction to the speed bubble theory as 'they could never make one big enough, too much manpower' etc., a point at which, if he knew about Nicrosil, it would be pretty hard to not even consider the metal. So if he doesn't know it's definitely up in the air whether the Vanishers know.
    --of course, duralumin is probably not widely known either, with the absence of mistborn, just more likely to be known because it would probably be at least somewhere in cultural memory/ legends etc.

As for finding the gnats they could just feed everybody large quantities of Duralumin, say hey 'burn it or you'll die (from metal poisoning)' and then see who's alive at the end. Of course that is getting a bit complicated/ far-fetched, but I am pretty sure it would work.

It could also be that they're not even looking for allomancers, but rather taking women because they make better hostages, and are planning some sort of large-scale coup/ assault on the nobles or some sort of allomancer power house (explaining the need for aluminum bullets), using the hostages to force as many as they can to stand down. That would be supported by the way the leader was spouting some pseudo-morality very anti-noble lines in the ch. 5 robbery. 

Anyways it just totally bugs me that the first thing stolen was a *secret* aluminum shipment. Like, they clearly were targeting that specific metal first, it feels like it must have at least somehow enabled them to steal the other stuff.

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