Author Topic: Hey Skar...how safe is the green zone in Baghdad?  (Read 1252 times)

Brenna

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Hey Skar...how safe is the green zone in Baghdad?
« on: January 10, 2005, 02:54:25 AM »
And were you ever in Baghdad itself? I'm wondering because my dad is heading over there in a week (he'll be there for six months). I know the green zone is the "safe" zone, but really, how safe is it? Thanks! :)

Spriggan

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Re: Hey Skar...how safe is the green zone in Baghd
« Reply #1 on: January 10, 2005, 03:26:03 AM »
well considering there have been several attacks in the greenzone over the past month i'd say not very. ┬áIn fact the road from the bagdad airport to the greenzone is one of the more dangerous places in the area.  Now all these attacks (or at least all I know of) happend at the border of the green zone with militants useing car bombs or like things, so if he's going to be mostly inside the greenzone then there's not much to worry about.  Though if he's going to be traveling a lot (especialy if he stays around the bagdad area, ie the Sunni Triangle) then there's cause to worry.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2005, 08:39:15 AM by Spriggan »
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Mad Dr Jeffe

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Re: Hey Skar...how safe is the green zone in Baghd
« Reply #2 on: January 10, 2005, 04:19:29 AM »
Is your dad a reservist, guardsman, active duty, a private contractor or government official?
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MsFish

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Re: Hey Skar...how safe is the green zone in Baghd
« Reply #3 on: January 10, 2005, 04:25:48 AM »
Quote
In fact the road from the bagdad airport to the greenzone is one of the more dangerous places in the area.


Way to comfort her, Spriggan.
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Spriggan

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Re: Hey Skar...how safe is the green zone in Baghd
« Reply #4 on: January 10, 2005, 06:47:13 AM »
Why lie?
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Mad Dr Jeffe

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Re: Hey Skar...how safe is the green zone in Baghd
« Reply #5 on: January 10, 2005, 06:48:10 AM »
I think she just wanted you to be a little more sensitive.
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Spriggan

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Re: Hey Skar...how safe is the green zone in Baghd
« Reply #6 on: January 10, 2005, 07:18:22 AM »
Quote
I think she just wanted you to be a little more sensitive.


you're one to talk.

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Re: Hey Skar...how safe is the green zone in Baghd
« Reply #7 on: January 10, 2005, 09:38:45 AM »
I'm sick, I'm at work anyway, I haven't had a enough sleep, and I'm not in a good mood. Probably that's not the best way to moderate, but still, Jeffe, Sprig, drop it. I don't care who said what first. I'm tired of TWG being a snip at each other zone. I know I do it to, but I think we should all just drop it. No bringing up past transgressions, because we can all do that to everyone. wait a few hours before you post if you see something that makes you mad. Give the other guy the benefit of a doubt if there's anyway a post that can be interpreted as not intentionally being a jerk. Just. Stop. It. That means EVERYONE. Me, you, anyone at all who sees the board.

Nicadymus

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Re: Hey Skar...how safe is the green zone in Baghd
« Reply #8 on: January 10, 2005, 10:20:18 AM »
Brenna,  I haven't been over there yet, but, as a guardsman, I have been watching pretty closely what has been going on as there is a definite chance that I will get the call.

I hate to bring unfortunate news, but Sprig does have a point; there have been some attacks in the greenzone over the past few months.  One thing to keep in mind is that this "conflict/war/whatever the media decides to call it" (I will call it a "conflict" for the rest of this post) is unlike some wars in the past where there was a definite front line.  In this conflict there are areas that are safer, but no area that is completely safe.  The greenzone is supposed to be a safer area, so that should be encouraging for you.

I am sorry that you have someone close to you headed over there.  I know it must be hard.
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Mad Dr Jeffe

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Re: Hey Skar...how safe is the green zone in Baghd
« Reply #9 on: January 10, 2005, 02:23:20 PM »
I will say that many of those green zone attacks have been specific assasination attempts against Iraqi officals in the interrum government.
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Re: Hey Skar...how safe is the green zone in Baghd
« Reply #10 on: January 10, 2005, 02:36:08 PM »
So we're saying that as long as Brenna's Dad isn't the next kwisatz haderach, then all will be fine.
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Mad Dr Jeffe

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Re: Hey Skar...how safe is the green zone in Baghd
« Reply #11 on: January 10, 2005, 02:54:26 PM »
I have no fear, fear is the mindkiller!
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Skar

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Re: Hey Skar...how safe is the green zone in Baghd
« Reply #12 on: January 10, 2005, 04:02:56 PM »
Brenna-

I spent the month of April 2003 in Baghdad.  I can't really speak to the safety of the green zone since it didn't exist when I was there.  I will try and give you some idea though.

First of all, it depends rather heavily on what your dad will be doing.  Driving around outside the green zone (for instance if he lives in the green zone but does his work outside it) is less safe.  Living and working in the green zone should be relatively safe.  About all he has to worry about in that case is indirect fire, mortars rockets etc... coming in from outside.  The terrorists are less likely to use those because the Air Force is very good at smearing the launch sites within a second or two of the launch and patriot batteries(anti-missile) are very effective, resulting in a limited return on the (dead)terrorist's investment.

Remember, there are about 130,000 troops in Iraq right now and only about 1500 have died there in the last year and a half.  Now delete all those that died from direct enemy fire, they don't count in this calculation. (unless you're dad's in one of the combat arms, infantry, mech infantry, Special Forces etc... in which case the danger goes up in some ways)  Take the number left out of the 1500, divide it by 130,000 and then by three (6 out of 18 months)  approx .002% chance he'll be hurt.  All the other mitigating factors, which basically center around what his job will be, make his chances even better.

I suspect that if you look up some statistics on the internet you'd discover that there are many things more dangerous than being a support soldier in Iraq right now, like driving.

The reason I say his being in the combat arms ups the risk in only "some" ways is the following.  Combat soldiers go out where it's more risky more often than straight support soldiers but the terrorists really don't like attacking them because they always get their asses handed to them.  Example, Fallujah.  

What is he going to be doing?  (reiterate Jeffe's post)
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Mad Dr Jeffe

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Re: Hey Skar...how safe is the green zone in Baghd
« Reply #13 on: January 10, 2005, 04:19:01 PM »
Just to mitigate some fears, or transfer them to something else roughly half of the deaths in Iraq are accident related. A humvee drives into a canal, or a a tank rolls over or a helicopter crashes and troops get killed. So while its true the number of attacks is up, remember that for the most part the insurgents want to kill Iraqis more than they really want to kill american soldiers.  That may sound dumb, but lets look at american response, Americans get fired on by insurgents, 500 pound bomb flattens every building in a block.  Troops are far more likely to die of mundane reasons than they are to die from bullets or bombs. As far as combat goes the biggest threats to troops as far as the insurgency goes are roadside bombs and suicide attacks. The US does several things to try and combat these things, one they try to alternate travel and patrol routes at random, so that troops dont follow a set pattern. They try to travel in force so that if someone does get hurt they can be rescued. They wear the best body armor in the world, which helps to shield them from shrapnel and concussive force. They set up well guarded checkpoints and shoot to kill if someone threatens those checkpoints. In addition the best medical facilities in the world are a helicopter flight away. With the extra 150,000 troops being deployed the Army should be better prepared to defend itself, and to stop these kind of attacks.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2005, 04:21:23 PM by ElJeffe »
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fuzzyoctopus

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Re: Hey Skar...how safe is the green zone in Baghd
« Reply #14 on: January 10, 2005, 06:11:14 PM »
As far as I recall, her dad is now a private contractor.
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